More Americans Say Jobs Are Plentiful in October: Is Year-End Retention Risk Rising?
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose 7.5 points to 91.7 in October, its first gain in four months. More consumers now say jobs are “plentiful” than in September. For HR and finance teams heading into year-end awards, the signal is mixed: people feel better about the job market, but quits are still low and posted pay is growing more slowly than prices.
What changed between September and October
The Conference Board asks consumers how they see business conditions, jobs and their own income today and six months from now. Each “net” figure below is the positive answer minus the negative one. We checked each net figure against the published shares.
| Measure | September | October |
|---|---|---|
| Jobs “plentiful” now | 24.3% | 26.7% |
| Jobs “hard to get” now | 21.4% | 21.4% |
| Labor differential (net) | +2.9% | +5.3% |
| Expect more jobs in six months | 14.7% | 15.2% |
| Expect fewer jobs in six months | 27.6% | 26.3% |
| Expect income to rise in six months | 18.1% | 18.7% |
| Expect income to fall in six months | 14.9% | 12.0% |
| Present Situation Index | 111.8 | 120.4 |
| Expectations Index | 65.7 | 72.6 |
Two details matter here. First, the improvement in today's job market came entirely from more people saying jobs are plentiful; the “hard to get” share did not fall. Second, consumers still expect more job losses than gains over the next six months (net −11.1%), even if slightly fewer of them expect it than in September. The September index values in the table are derived by subtracting the reported point changes (8.6 and 6.9) from the October readings.
“Consumer confidence advanced in October, driven primarily by improved perceptions of current and expected business conditions.”
— Fergus McCormick, Senior Economist, Global Indicators, The Conference Board
McCormick also said confidence is still on a long-term downward trend, which he linked to higher prices eroding purchasing power. According to the release, consumers' write-in mentions of jobs and employment as a concern also rose, though less than mentions of prices.
What the other labor data says
Feeling that jobs are easier to find is not the same as people leaving. The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics JOLTS release (published September 29, for August) shows quits unchanged at 3.1 million, a rate of 1.9%, with a hires rate of 3.3%. Indeed Hiring Lab's October 22 snapshot says posted wages rose 2.4% year over year in September, against CPI inflation of 3.7% in its chart. That is a gap of 1.3 percentage points (our arithmetic). Indeed called the low hires and quits rates something that does not inspire confidence in a near-term improvement.
So the two readings point in different directions. Consumers feel a little better about finding work, while actual job switching remains slow and new-hire pay is not keeping up with prices. The Conference Board survey asks consumers, not specifically employees, and it does not measure plans to quit.
Dates to watch before year-end budgets close
- October 30, 2026: BLS releases the Employment Cost Index for the third quarter, the main official measure of employer pay and benefit costs.
- November 24, 2026: The Conference Board publishes November consumer confidence, which shows whether October's jobs reading holds.
- Next JOLTS release: the September quits figure will show whether the August rate of 1.9% has started to move.
What it means for HR, rewards and finance teams
- Watch the gap between mood and movement. If more workers believe jobs are plentiful while quits stay near 1.9%, exit numbers will not show the change until people actually move. Your own engagement and intent-to-stay surveys are the earlier signal.
- Inflation still shapes how a reward feels. With posted pay up 2.4% against 3.7% inflation (Indeed) and consumers expecting 5.8%, a recognition allowance left flat since last year buys less. Example, our arithmetic: a $50 award would need to be $50 × 1.037 = $51.85 to keep pace with 3.7% inflation.
- Choice helps when budgets are tight. When people worry about groceries and fuel, as the write-ins suggest, a reward they can choose (including everyday brands) is more useful than a fixed gift. Rewordin's reward catalog lists the gift card brands available, and the bulk gift card API sends digital cards to named recipients.
- Plan the tax side. In the US, gift cards from an employer are taxable wages. Budget for any gross-up before the awards go out; see are gift cards taxable to employees.
To size the numbers for your own team, use the employee recognition budget calculator or the employee turnover cost calculator. For context, read our salary increase statistics for 2026, holiday and year-end bonus statistics and employee turnover statistics. Our news on Gallup's 2026 job quality study covers what predicts plans to leave.
Sources
- The Conference Board, “US Consumer Confidence Increased in October” (October 27, 2026), the primary source. Index levels, labor, business and income shares, inflation expectations, write-in themes, survey dates and the McCormick quote. conference-board.org (also distributed via prnewswire.com)
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary” for August 2026 (September 29, 2026). Quits, quits rate and hires rate. bls.gov
- Indeed Hiring Lab, “US Labor Market Snapshot — October 2026” (October 22, 2026). Posted wage growth, the CPI comparison and its comment on hires and quits. hiringlab.indeed.com
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Cost Index release schedule. Date of the Q3 2026 release. bls.gov
This article summarizes economic survey data. It is not a forecast of any employer's turnover and is not legal, tax or financial advice.
About the author
Maciej has worked in the digital gift card and rewards industry for over 5 years. For this story he read the Conference Board's October 27 release, rechecked every net figure against the published shares, and compared the survey with the latest BLS JOLTS release and Indeed Hiring Lab's October snapshot. He worked out the September comparisons and the inflation example.