Workers Fear a Weaker Job Market but Still Plan to Quit: What the NY Fed's October Survey Means for Retention
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Survey of Consumer Expectations for October, published November 9, shows an odd mix. Americans put the chance that unemployment will be higher a year from now at its highest level since April 2020, yet the average chance they give of leaving their own job voluntarily stays above its twelve-month average. They expect their pay to grow 2.6% and prices 3.9%. For anyone setting next year's retention and recognition budget, that gap is the number to watch.
The labor-market answers, side by side
The survey asks a rotating panel of about 1,300 U.S. household heads each month what they expect to happen to prices, jobs and their own finances. These are the answers that matter most for an employer, with the trailing twelve-month averages the New York Fed gives for context:
| Question (next 12 months) | October | Change vs September | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chance the U.S. unemployment rate is higher (mean) | 45.3% | +1.4 pts | Highest since April 2020 |
| Chance of losing my job (mean) | 13.9% | +0.4 pts | Below 12-month average of 14.3% |
| Chance of leaving my job voluntarily (mean) | 19.4% | −0.5 pts | Above 12-month average of 18.4% |
| Chance of finding a job if I lost mine (mean) | 46.5% | +0.4 pts | Highest since November 2025 |
| My earnings growth (median) | 2.6% | Unchanged | 12-month average 2.7% |
| Inflation, one year ahead (median) | 3.9% | Unchanged | Three-year 3.3%, five-year 3.0% |
The rise in unemployment worries came mainly from respondents without a college degree, the release says. At the same time, people are slightly more confident they could find work if they lost their job. Put together: workers think the labor market overall is getting tougher, but they do not feel stuck, and the share planning to move on is still higher than it was on average over the past year.
The gap that drives the quit number
Our own arithmetic on the survey's medians shows why pay is the pressure point. Expected earnings growth minus expected inflation is 2.6% − 3.9% = −1.3 points: the typical respondent expects their pay to buy less a year from now. The household side tells the same story: expected spending growth is 5.3% against expected household income growth of 3.0%, a 2.3-point gap, and the mean chance of missing a minimum debt payment in the next three months rose 1.6 points to 13.8%, the highest since December 2025.
The expectations are not far from what is already happening. The Bureau of Labor Statistics put consumer prices up 3.7% over the twelve months to September; the October figure is scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET today, November 10. We covered the latest pay data in our report on the October jobs numbers.
What employers are seeing
The Conference Board's Employment Trends Index, also released November 9, points the same way from the employer side. The index edged down 0.1% in October to 108.36 but is up 2.4% on a year earlier. Among its eight components, the share of firms with positions they cannot fill right now rose to 36% from 32%, while job openings were estimated down 73,000 to 7.45 million and the ratio of involuntary part-timers rose to 17.6% from 16.5%.
“The annual growth rate of the ETI has been edging higher over the last six months.”
— Conrad Qi, Economic Data Scientist Associate, The Conference Board (November 9, 2026)
Fewer openings but more firms struggling to fill the ones they have is the setting in which a self-reported quit intention above its average turns into real departures among the people you can least afford to lose.
Three questions HR and finance are asking
Does a 19.4% “chance of leaving” mean one in five employees will quit?
No. It is the average probability respondents give for their own voluntary exit, an intention, not a count of quits, and it covers all household heads, not your workforce. What it is good for is direction: it is one point above its twelve-month average. As an illustration only, on a 200-person team the difference between 18.4% and 19.4% is about two extra people thinking seriously about leaving (200 × 1.0%). The employee turnover cost calculator puts a price on each of them.
If workers fear layoffs, why spend on retention at all?
Because the fear is about the economy, not about their own job: the perceived chance of losing one's own job, 13.9%, is below its twelve-month average, and the chance of finding a new one is the highest in eleven months. That is not a workforce that feels trapped. Our employee turnover statistics collect what replacing people actually costs.
Can recognition replace a raise?
Not when people expect their pay to fall behind prices. Base pay sets the floor; recognition and rewards work on top of it, by making effort visible and giving people something they can use now. A gift card or other reward that recipients can spend on what costs them more this year (groceries, fuel, a meal out) speaks directly to the pressure this survey describes.
What it means for your rewards program
- Plan for an expected real pay cut. If 2027 raises land near the current trend, many employees will still feel behind. Show the full value of what you give, base pay plus rewards, so the non-salary part is not invisible. Our salary increase statistics track what employers are budgeting.
- Protect the recognition line. When budgets tighten, recognition is often cut first, at the moment quit intentions sit above average. Size it per head with the recognition budget calculator and the CFO framework for a rewards budget.
- Give rewards people can use on rising costs. A catalog of brands lets each person pick groceries, fuel or dining rather than a single fixed card.
- Watch the people the survey flags. The jump in unemployment worries came mainly from respondents without a college degree. If much of your workforce fits that description, that is where uncertainty is rising fastest, and where a timely, visible reward is likely to be noticed most.
- Remember the tax side. In the U.S., cash and gift cards from an employer are taxable wages at any amount; see are gift cards taxable to employees before you set per-head values.
Sources
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Survey of Consumer Expectations, October 2026 survey (press release, November 9, 2026), the primary source. Inflation, earnings, unemployment, job-loss, quit and job-finding expectations, household income and spending growth, and delinquency expectations. newyorkfed.org (survey overview: newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce)
- The Conference Board, “Employment Trends Index (ETI)”, October 2026 release (November 9, 2026). Index level, monthly and annual change, component readings and the quoted sentence. conference-board.org
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Consumer Price Index — September 2026” (October 14, 2026). All items +3.7% over twelve months; October release scheduled for November 10, 2026. bls.gov
This article summarizes published survey and economic data for general information. It is not financial, tax or legal advice, and survey expectations are not forecasts for any individual employer.
About the author
Maciej has worked in the digital gift card and rewards industry for over 5 years. For this story he read the New York Fed's November 9 Survey of Consumer Expectations release and the Conference Board's Employment Trends Index release from the same day, checked the latest BLS consumer price figures, and calculated the expected real pay gap and the income-versus-spending gap from the survey medians.