47% of Holiday Shoppers Want Gift Cards, NRF Survey Finds: What a $1.013 Trillion Season Means for Year-End Employee Rewards
The National Retail Federation's annual holiday consumer survey, published October 20, puts gift cards at the top of 2026 wish lists for the season, ahead of clothing. Five days earlier NRF forecast that November–December retail sales will grow 4.2% to $1.013 trillion. The survey measures consumers, not employees — but it is the largest current read on what U.S. adults say they want to receive, and that is the question anyone choosing a year-end reward is trying to answer.
What NRF published this week
NRF's survey asked 8,094 adult consumers about their holiday plans in the first week of October. Gift cards were the gift the largest share of shoppers want to receive, 3 points ahead of clothing — a gap larger than the survey's ±1.1-point margin of error. The release does not give a dollar figure for gift card spending or a year-on-year comparison for the wish-list question, so we cannot say whether gift cards gained or lost ground against 2025 on this measure.
The rest of the survey is about cost pressure. More than half of shoppers (56%) say the economy will shape their plans; of those, 43% will shop for sales more often, 31% will comparison-shop online more often and 29% will use more coupons. 43% plan to start before November, against 42% last year, and 64% expect to do most of their shopping over Thanksgiving weekend.
“With affordability top of mind, holiday shoppers are taking a thoughtful approach to spending.”
— Allison Zeller, Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights, National Retail Federation (October 20, 2026)
The forecast behind it
NRF's October 15 forecast covers core retail — it excludes auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants — for November 1 to December 31. Its $1.013 trillion projection is about $41 billion more than the $972 billion of the 2025 season ($1,013bn − $972bn, our arithmetic), and the 4.2% growth rate is faster than last year's 3.1%. NRF also expects retailers to hire 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal workers, compared with an estimated 356,000 last year. Retail Insight Network's October 20 report on the forecast carries the same figures.
For context on gift cards specifically, the most recent NRF dollar figure is from last season: in December 2025 NRF said gift card spending was expected to reach $29 billion and that 43% of shoppers planned to buy at least one. That was a purchase-intent question, not the wish-list question asked this year, so the two percentages should not be compared directly.
The dates that matter for year-end rewards
- October 15 — NRF publishes its 2026 holiday sales forecast.
- October 20 — NRF publishes the consumer survey with the gift card wish-list result.
- October 28 — NRF's Winter Holiday Consumer Outlook webinar (1 p.m. ET), listed on its holiday data page.
- November 1 — NRF's holiday season begins; 43% of shoppers plan to have started before then.
- December 31 — season ends, and so does the 2026 payroll year. Gift card rewards given to employees in December are reported on 2026 wages.
What it means for HR, finance and procurement
- A gift card is a defensible default. When nearly half of U.S. adults name gift cards first, a choice-based reward is unlikely to be the wrong call — especially with 56% feeling the economy in their own budgets.
- Order early. A $1.013 trillion season and 325,000–375,000 seasonal hires mean busy issuers and retailers. Place bulk orders and confirm delivery dates in November, not the week before the holiday break.
- Lock the payroll date. Agree with payroll which December pay period carries the taxable value; for employees already past the 2026 Social Security wage base, a December date avoids the 6.2% employer Social Security tax that restarts on January 1, as our 2027 wage base story explains.
- Size the budget per head, not per pot. Our recognition budget calculator turns headcount and a per-employee amount into a total before tax costs are added.
- Read the survey for what it is. It is a consumer poll about gifts from family and friends; pair it with employee-specific data, such as the two employer gifting surveys we covered in what employees want from a holiday gift.
For longer-run figures on the market, see our gift card statistics for 2026 and holiday and year-end bonus statistics. Teams sending cards to many employees at once can see how ordering and delivery work through the bulk gift card API, or let employees choose a brand from the reward catalog.
Sources
- National Retail Federation, “Affordability Shapes Winter Holiday Shopping, According to NRF Holiday Survey” (press release, October 20, 2026) — wish-list percentages, methodology (8,094 adults, Prosper Insights & Analytics, October 1–7, ±1.1 points), economy and timing figures, Allison Zeller quote. nrf.com
- National Retail Federation, “NRF Forecasts 2026 Holiday Sales Growth as Consumers Remain Resilient” (press release, October 15, 2026) — 4.2% growth to $1.013 trillion, 2025 comparison, seasonal hiring, forecast scope. nrf.com
- National Retail Federation, Winter Holiday Data and Trends (accessed October 23, 2026) — October 28 webinar listing. nrf.com
- Mohamed Dabo, “US holiday retail sales forecast to reach US$1.013 trillion in 2026,” Retail Insight Network (October 20, 2026) — independent report of the forecast figures. retail-insight-network.com
- Lea Grgich, “Gift Cards Gain Popularity as Top Choice for Holiday Shoppers in 2025,” NRF (December 11, 2025) — $29 billion 2025 gift card spending expectation; 43% planning to buy. nrf.com
- Internal Revenue Service, Publication 15-B (2026), Employer's Tax Guide to Fringe Benefits, “De Minimis (Minimal) Benefits.” irs.gov
This article summarizes NRF research and an IRS publication. It is not tax advice; confirm the treatment of any employee reward with your payroll provider or tax adviser.
About the author
Maciej has worked in the digital gift card and rewards industry for over 5 years. For this story he read NRF's October 15 forecast and October 20 survey releases, NRF's 2025 gift card note, Retail Insight Network's coverage and the de minimis section of IRS Publication 15-B on October 23, 2026, and calculated the year-on-year dollar difference in the forecast.